Nigeria’s non-oil revenue climbed to N4.387.93 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2024, exceeding the quarterly estimate of N2.70 trillion by N1.68 trillion or 62.39%, according to the Budget Office of the Federation’s newly released Q4 2024 Consolidated Budget Implementation Report (BIR).
The increase was largely attributed to robust collections from Company Income Tax (CIT), Value Added Tax (VAT), and Customs duties. CIT generated N1.5 trillion, VAT brought in N1.94 trillion, and Customs collections reached N837.38 billion.
These figures surpassed their targets by 79.79%, 96.94%, and 16.75%, respectively. The stronger-than-expected non-oil revenue offset weaker oil sector performance, pushing the net distributable revenue in Q4 to N7.5 trillion, an increase of N727.37 billion or 10.75% from the projected N6.76 trillion. The development signals progress in the government’s diversification drive away from crude oil dependence.
Despite the positive non-oil performance, oil revenue fell short. A Nairametrics review of the report showed that gross oil revenue for the quarter stood at N3.9 trillion, which was N1.09 trillion or 21.82% below the quarterly budget estimate and N714.61 billion (15.46%) lower than the N4.62 trillion recorded in the third quarter of 2024.
However, Q4 oil revenue was N2.02 trillion (107.23%) higher than the N1.88 trillion recorded in the corresponding period of 2023.
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Net oil revenue accruing to the Federation Account in Q4 amounted to N3.34 trillion, falling short of the N4.24 trillion target by N896.57 billion (21.12%) and below Q3 2024’s N3.98 trillion by N639.03 billion (16.02%).
The underperformance was attributed to declining oil prices, averaging US$74.65 per barrel in Q4 2024, reduced production levels, crude oil theft, infrastructural constraints, and high fiscal deductions for subsidies and other obligations.
The report noted that oil revenue underperformed by about one-fifth during the quarter, creating fiscal pressure on the government’s funding assumptions. For the full year 2024, gross oil revenue totaled N15.06 trillion, falling short of the N19.99 trillion budget projection by N4.92 trillion or 24.65%.
In contrast, non-oil revenue
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The report emphasized that ongoing tax reforms, diversification efforts, and structural adjustments planned for next year will be crucial to strengthening revenue efficiency and sustaining fiscal stability.
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Image Credit: Business Day
