According to the latest monthly oil report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value declined sharply in April 2025, dropping by $5.02, or 6.8%, month on month to average $68.98 per barrel.
The report highlights that all ORB component prices fell in line with their respective crude oil benchmarks, influenced by lower official selling prices across the three main marketplaces.
Year-to-date, the ORB value averaged $74.82 per barrel, down $8.85 or 10.6% compared to the previous year.
OPEC states, “West and North African Basket components, Bonny Light, Djeno, Es Sider, Rabi Light, Sahara Blend and Zafiro, fell by an average of $4.77, or 6.7%, m-o-m, to $66.85/b, and multiple-region destination grades, Arab Light, Basrah Medium, Iran Heavy and Kuwait Export, decreased on average by $5.11, or 6.8%, m-o-m, to settle at $69.89/b.”
The report adds, “Murban crude fell by $4.90, or 6.7%, m-o-m, on average to settle at $67.73/b. The Merey component decreased by $4.38, or 7.2%, m-o-m, to settle at $56.72/b.”
Despite recent tariff developments, the global economy “continues to grow steadily.” OPEC’s forecast for global economic growth in 2025 has been revised down to 2.9%, while the 2026 growth forecast remains at 3.1%. Additionally, the world’s oil demand in 2025 is projected to increase by 1.3 million barrels per day year on year, unchanged from last month’s projection.
Focusing on Africa’s largest oil producer, the report notes the Nigerian economy is unlikely to be seriously affected by recent US tariffs “due to exemptions for oil and gas exports and little commerce with the US.”
On Nigeria’s private sector, the report states, “The April 2025 Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI eased slightly to 54.2 from a one-year high of 54.3 in March, but still marked the fifth consecutive month of expansion in the private sector. Output growth accelerated to its fastest pace since January 2024, while employment rose for the fifth straight month to an eight-month high, as firms responded to stronger demand.”
However, “rising raw material costs and currency depreciation pushed input prices higher, leading to a further uptick in output charges.”
Despite these inflationary pressures, “businesses remained optimistic about the year-ahead outlook, although confidence softened for the third consecutive month,” the report adds.
In terms of oil production, OPEC’s data based on secondary sources show that in April 2025, all major African producers, except Congo, recorded a decrease in output. Congo maintained its production level from the previous month.
Ranking the top five African countries by crude oil production (in thousand barrels per day), Nigeria leads at 1,471 tb/d, down 28 tb/d from March. Libya follows with 1,263 tb/d, down 14 tb/d. Algeria produced 912 tb/d, down 1 tb/d. Congo held steady at 260 tb/d, and Gabon rounded out the top five with 222 tb/d, down 1 tb/d.
This data underscores the subtle shifts in Africa’s oil output during April 2025 amid a landscape of falling crude prices and ongoing global economic adjustments.
