Nigeria’s crude oil production declined to 1.31 million barrels per day (bpd) in February 2026, falling short of the country’s 1.5 million bpd production quota set by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC.
Nairametrics
The figure, drawn from OPEC’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report based on direct communication with Nigerian authorities, represents a 10.69% drop from the 1.45 million bpd recorded in January 2026.
With output at 1.31 million bpd, Nigeria underproduced its OPEC allocation by roughly 190,000 barrels per day, continuing a pattern of missed targets that has persisted for several months.
Data compiled from secondary sources — independent energy analysts and industry trackers — placed Nigeria’s February production slightly higher at about 1.46 million bpd, though still marginally below January’s 1.47 million bpd estimate.
Despite the decline, Nigeria retained its position as Africa’s largest crude oil producer, producing more than Libya, which pumped roughly 1.28 million bpd during the same period.
Industry analysts attribute Nigeria’s recurring production shortfalls to several structural challenges, including crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism, ageing infrastructure, operational disruptions, and security issues in the Niger Delta region. These factors have repeatedly constrained output and prevented the country from maximizing revenue from high global oil prices.
The latest decline comes at a time of heightened volatility in global energy markets. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed crude prices sharply higher, creating potential revenue opportunities for oil-exporting nations. However, Nigeria’s inability to meet its production quota limits the country’s capacity to benefit fully from the price surge.
Nigeria’s oil output remains a critical factor for government revenue and foreign exchange earnings. Analysts warn that persistent production deficits could further strain public finances, especially as the federal government’s fiscal projections rely heavily on oil output benchmarks significantly higher than current production levels.
