The United States has imposed a 30% tariff on South African exports, with duties of up to 50% hitting other countries as well.
The move marks the end of a 90-day pause on tariffs that was announced in April.
According to The Citizen, the decision by US President Donald Trump has reignited global trade tensions and signals an aggressive push for what he describes as more “reciprocal” and “fair” trading terms.
Bianca Botes, director at Citadel Global, said this is a sharp escalation in Trump’s protectionist agenda.
The latest round of tariffs affects multiple countries: Japan and South Korea were hit with 25% tariffs starting 1 August.
South Africa (30%), Bangladesh (35%), Brazil (50%), and Thailand (36%) are also facing steep increases.
More countries may follow, with Mexico and the European Union already marked for 30% tariffs over the weekend.
In addition to these country-specific increases, the US has announced a blanket 10% tariff on all BRICS imports.
A 50% duty on all copper imports has also been introduced, along with a proposed 200% tax on pharmaceuticals.
Despite the scope of these new tariffs, the market response has been minimal so far.
Botes observed that markets seem to be waiting for clarity, with only slight movements in equities and weakening in emerging market currencies.
She added that many affected countries are considering retaliatory actions or last-minute negotiations, even as the White House maintains that 1 August is a firm deadline.
“The rest of July could be pivotal,” Botes said. “Between Trump’s hard tariff line and the Fed’s cautious monetary policy stance, economic uncertainty is running high.
Trump’s aggressive approach may disrupt global supply chains and relations with allies and emerging markets alike.
All eyes are now on incoming data and how markets, governments and central banks respond to what could be an unpredictable end to the month.”
Although Trump had warned that BRICS countries could face an additional 10% tariff, Lisette IJssel de Schepper, chief economist at the Bureau for Economic Research, said that this was not included in the letter South Africa received.
Meanwhile, Brazil, also a BRICS member, was hit with a 50% tariff. “Unlike most countries facing reciprocal tariffs, Brazil runs a trade surplus with the US, importing more from the US than it exports,” De Schepper said.
She explained that Trump’s letter made it clear the tariffs are political, stating he wanted to penalise Brazil for the “witch hunt” on former president Jair Bolsonaro.
De Schepper noted that Brazil is the US’s largest coffee supplier and a key source of iron ore.
She added, “Trump, perhaps fearing that some of the reciprocal tariffs may be struck down by the courts, has ordered a so-called section 301 investigation into Brazil specifically.
While this will take time, it could be a basis for sustained tariffs going forward.”
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President Cyril Ramaphosa responded to the US tariffs by pointing out that the data used for calculating them is inaccurate.
But Trump explained that his decisions are based on “common sense, deficits, how we have been over the years and raw numbers.”
De Schepper said trying to challenge the data probably won’t change anything.
“Hopefully, by highlighting what South Africa can offer the US and being pragmatic, there is some scope to wiggle down the tariff, as some other countries have successfully done.”
She added that government had previously hoped for a “worst case” 10% tariff across the board, which now looks like a “best case.”
Citing The Financial Times, she added that there’s unlikely to be a “definitive policy” in a Trump-led world.
While the broader economy may not be severely affected, specific sectors like motor manufacturing and some agricultural products will be impacted directly.
Dr. Ernst van Biljon, head lecturer and MCom supply chain programme coordinator at the IMM Graduate School, said the 30% US tariff on all South African products is more than a diplomatic dispute, it’s a seismic event that could send shockwaves through both local and global supply chains.
“This escalation signals a deeper shift: the weaponisation of trade policy as a geopolitical tool,” Van Biljon said.
He explained that US importers and retailers will now have to de-risk their supply chains.
“The 30% duty instantly inflates the cost of South African goods, making them less competitive on American shelves.
This is not just about price but about the very viability of product lines.”
He said this shift could accelerate “friend-shoring” or “near-shoring,” where companies prefer suppliers in politically aligned or nearby countries.
“The ability to guarantee consistent product availability and predictable pricing, even if it means re-evaluating long-standing supplier relationships, will become a key differentiator.”
Van Biljon also said the new tariffs could trigger a global rerouting of goods.
“South African products previously destined for the US might now seek new markets, potentially increasing supply in other regions and creating new competitive dynamics.”
He added that South African businesses can’t just pivot with marketing, they need to rethink their entire value chain strategies.
This includes integrating more with regional partners through SADC, BRICS, and the AfCFTA, and investing in local beneficiation to become more resilient.
“For South Africa, the implications are immediate and profound,” he said.
“Businesses, particularly those in export-heavy sectors like agriculture, must urgently identify and cultivate new international markets beyond the US.”
He pointed out that sectors such as citrus, wine, nuts, and automotive components are particularly exposed.
These industries, he said, should consider processing products at source and strengthening ties with high-growth markets in Asia and the Middle East.
Commenting on the US’s offer to waive tariffs if companies manufacture their products within the US, Van Biljon said this presents a difficult choice.
“While some large corporations might consider this, it threatens to hollow out local manufacturing capabilities and job creation.”
He added that this could inspire a rise in “Buy Local” campaigns to encourage consumer support for South African-made goods.
Lastly, he urged companies to explore opportunities for local supplier development and upstream integration.
“Strengthening links with regional and Asian supply partners can enhance both resilience and cost competitiveness,” he said.
“The true opportunity is not in survival but in transformation, future-proofing South Africa’s role in global supply chains through strategy, value creation and new market development.”
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Ramaphosa Seeks Extended Talks as Trump’s Tariff Deadline Nears
Image Credit: CNBC Africa
