Cocoa prices rose sharply over the past week as harsh weather conditions in West Africa fueled supply concerns.
The cash crop rebounded from a 52-week low last week on the New York Exchange to settle at $7,420 per ton.
This recovery comes months after cocoa hit a record high of $12,646 per ton in December 2024.
Excessive rainfall in the Ivory Coast has slowed cultivation and disrupted the flow of beans from plantations to ports, while insufficient rainfall in Ghana and Nigeria has caused cocoa pods to wither and damaged harvests.
The spread of black pod disease in Ghana and Nigeria, coupled with cold and dry conditions, pushed cocoa prices to two-month highs last month, according to Nairametrics.
The Commodity Weather Group reported that the past 60 days have been the driest since 1979 for cocoa regions in West Africa.
With the main crop harvest due to begin in October, the lack of rain threatens pod retention on trees.
Concerns over the quality of the Ivory Coast’s mid-crop, harvested through September, also supported recent price gains.
Rabobank noted that late rains have hindered crop growth and contributed to weaker quality for the mid-crop, which typically begins in April and is smaller than the main harvest.
Inventories remain tight, as ICE-monitored cocoa stocks in U.S. ports fell to a four-month low of 2,115,411 bags on Wednesday.
The slowdown in Ivory Coast exports is reinforcing upward price momentum.
Still, rising prices are creating pressure on chocolate demand.
Lindt and Sprüngli AG lowered its margin guidance in July after reporting an unexpected drop in first-half sales, while Barry Callebaut AG cut its sales volume guidance for the second time in three months, citing persistently high cocoa prices.
The Ivory Coast’s mid-crop is now estimated at 400,000 metric tons, 9% lower than last year’s 440,000 estimate.
Nigeria, the world’s fifth-largest cocoa producer, is also producing less, adding to supply concerns.
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The Nigerian Cocoa Association forecasts that Nigeria’s production for 2025–2026 will decline 11% year on year to 305,000 metric tons, down from 344,000 in 2024–2025.
Yet Nigeria’s June cocoa exports grew by 0.9% year on year to 14,597 metric tons, and the country reported a milestone in revenue.
According to Norrenberger, Nigeria earned N1.23 trillion from cocoa exports in the first quarter of 2025, a 220% increase from the N384 billion generated in the same period of 2024. At the same time, official imports rose.
After the close of the 2024–2025 season in July, Nigeria became the largest African importer of Cameroonian cocoa, with the National Cocoa and Coffee Board reporting imports of 2,100 metric tons, equivalent to 1.09% of Cameroon’s total exports.
While Europe accounted for 79% of Cameroon’s cocoa exports and Asia 18%, Africa’s share remained marginal at 1.13%.
Nigeria’s official imports suggest a shift toward more regulated trade, easing concerns about the illegal flows that have long challenged Cameroon’s cocoa sector.
Vice President Kashim Shettima emphasized Nigeria’s commitment to reviving its cocoa industry and transforming the country into a global cocoa processor.
Meeting with a delegation from the World Cocoa Foundation, he announced the government’s approval of a National Cocoa Management Board to support the sector’s revival.
“We have to act as we speak. Nigeria used to be one of the world’s top producers of cocoa, but oil changed our priorities. We can bring that glory back,” he said.
Shettima stressed that global cocoa prices present Nigeria with an opportunity to reposition the industry under the Renewed Hope Agenda by investing in processing rather than relying solely on raw bean exports.
He added that the president is committed to restoring cocoa and other agricultural value chains nationwide.
Meanwhile, the International Cocoa Organization projected in February 2024 a global cocoa surplus of 142,000 metric tons for the 2024–2025 season, marking the first surplus in four years.
The organization also forecasted that global cocoa production would rise by 7.8% year on year to 4.84 million metric tons in 2024–2025.
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Image Credit: Organic Facts
