Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, has projected that his conglomerate, Dangote Group, will hit $30 billion in revenue by 2026, even as global trade faces turbulence from potential shifts in U.S. policies under President Donald Trump.
Speaking at a venture capital conference in Lagos on Thursday, Dangote revealed that the company expects to add $5 billion to its earnings next year, up from the $25 billion projected for 2025.
At the heart of this growth is the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Lagos, which has remained untouched by Trump’s updated tariff policy, as oil and gas exports were excluded from the changes.
“I was worried about the U.S. tariff because 37% of our urea goes to the U.S.,” Dangote said, referring to the group’s fertilizer exports.
Fortunately, Dangote Fertilizer stands to gain from a favorable 16 percent levy difference between Nigeria and competing producers like Algeria.
Dangote also laid out his vision for cement expansion across the continent, stating, “We are at about 53 million tons in production capacity today.
By next year, we will be at 62 million tons of cement.
We will be number one.”
The group is aiming to overtake Egypt as Africa’s top cement exporter by 2026.
As the group diversifies and scales operations across energy, manufacturing, and agriculture, its total assets have risen to $27.5 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
However, Dangote’s bullish forecast comes amid growing concerns over Nigeria’s trade vulnerabilities, especially its reliance on duty-free access to U.S. markets under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).
A recent report by Strategy&, the strategy division of PwC, warns that Nigeria could lose critical export benefits if AGOA is not renewed or if Trump’s trade team opts for broader tariff reforms.
Nigeria—ranked second after South Africa in AGOA exports—sold goods worth $1.76 billion to the U.S. in 2024.
If AGOA benefits are withdrawn, analysts warn that Nigeria could lose its competitive edge in crude oil, agricultural, and manufactured goods exports, potentially denting its foreign exchange reserves and slowing economic growth.
While Dangote Industries continues to scale new revenue heights, the larger question facing Nigeria’s economic planners is whether current global trade frameworks will remain favorable in the coming years.
Policymakers are watching closely, aware that the country’s access to U.S. markets could determine how far its businesses can go in a shifting global economy.
