Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote is considering Kenya as the preferred location for a proposed $17 billion oil refinery project in East Africa, signaling what could become one of the continent’s largest industrial energy investments outside Nigeria.
According to Channels Television, Dangote said he is leaning toward Kenya’s coastal city of Mombasa because of its larger port infrastructure and stronger market potential compared to earlier plans linked to Tanzania.
Speaking in an interview with the Financial Times, Dangote said the refinery could process up to 650,000 barrels of oil per day, matching the scale of his existing Lagos refinery, currently regarded as the world’s largest single train refinery.
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Dangote said Kenya’s larger economy and fuel consumption levels make the country strategically attractive for the project. He also noted that crude oil can be transported by ship, reducing the need for the refinery to be directly tied to the Uganda Tanzania crude oil pipeline project previously associated with the Tanzanian port city of Tanga.
The proposed investment comes amid growing regional competition over energy infrastructure and industrial positioning in East Africa. Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan recently expressed concerns after reports emerged suggesting the refinery project could shift toward Kenya without broader regional consultation.
Dangote said the project would require support from Kenyan authorities, including land access, regional financing participation, and protection from low cost imported fuel entering African markets from countries such as Russia and India.
He argued that refining projects globally often depend on some form of market protection to remain commercially sustainable against heavily subsidized imports.
The expansion plans come as Dangote’s Lagos refinery continues increasing production and exports across Africa. The refinery has played a growing role in supplying fuel, jet fuel, and fertilizer across several African markets amid global supply disruptions and shipping challenges linked to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.
Dangote also revealed plans to eventually increase the Lagos refinery’s capacity to about 1.4 million barrels per day, potentially placing it among the world’s largest refining operations.
What This Means For Africa
This reflects a much larger industrial shift taking place across Africa, where refining capacity, energy security, and regional industrial infrastructure are becoming increasingly important economic priorities.
For decades, many African oil producing countries exported crude oil while importing refined petroleum products at significantly higher costs. Dangote’s refinery model represents an attempt to reverse that pattern by building large scale refining capacity within Africa itself.
If the Kenya project proceeds, it could significantly reshape fuel supply dynamics across East Africa by reducing import dependence, improving regional energy security, and creating industrial activity around logistics, petrochemicals, shipping, and manufacturing.
The project also highlights how infrastructure competition is intensifying between African countries seeking to position themselves as regional industrial hubs. Ports, pipelines, logistics networks, and energy infrastructure are increasingly becoming strategic economic assets tied to trade influence and long term growth.
At the same time, the discussion around protection from imported fuel exposes a deeper challenge facing African industrialization. Many large scale manufacturing and refining projects struggle to compete against cheaper global imports without supportive policy frameworks.
How African governments balance market openness with industrial protection could become one of the defining economic questions shaping the continent’s next phase of development.
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Image Credit: Reuters
