The import of Premium Motor Spirit, also known as petrol, by oil marketers increased sharply in March 2026, surging by about 96.7 per cent compared to February, according to the latest data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority. [Punch]
Petrol import volumes climbed from 3.0 million litres per day in February to 5.9 million litres per day in March, reflecting renewed reliance on foreign supply amid shifting domestic dynamics. The sharp increase marks a significant reversal after the regulatory authority announced in January that no new import licenses had been issued for 2026.
While domestic supplies dropped to 34.2 million litres from 36.5 million litres in February, the Dangote refinery accounted for the total domestic production in the period, while the state owned refineries including Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna refineries remained shut down.
The Dangote refinery, which commenced operations in late 2024 with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, continues to serve as Nigeria’s primary domestic supplier.The data also revealed a notable decline in petrol consumption, which dropped from 56.9 million litres per day in February to 47.3 million litres per day in March, suggesting weaker demand due to the high pricing of petroleum products during the period.
Recall that the Dangote refinery increased its petrol price at least five times to N1,275 per litre in March. The inventory situation tightened considerably. Petrol stock sufficiency fell sharply from 30.7 days to 21.2 days, indicating tighter inventory levels despite increased imports.
This compression reflects the complex interplay between rising imports, fluctuating domestic output, and reduced consumption driven by elevated retail prices across Nigerian markets.Regional price variations remain significant. Latest NMDPRA data shows Enugu State with the highest average retail price at ₦1,270 per litre, followed by Maiduguri at ₦1,238.50, Sokoto at ₦1,226.50, and Abuja and Calabar both at ₦1,202 per litre.
The disparity underscores the downstream pricing pressure across Nigeria’s petroleum supply chain.The regulatory environment adds complexity to the import surge. The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority has clarified that no import licences were issued in the first quarter of 2026, asserting that shortfalls in February were covered by leftover stocks from January and existing refinery output.
NMDPRA Chief Executive Saidu Mohammed has warned against returning to heavy import dependence, stating that the authority issued no petrol import licenses during the first quarter.An analysis of the figures indicates that while imports nearly doubled within the month, domestic supply still accounted for the bulk of the market, reinforcing the increasing role of local refiners, particularly the Dangote refinery, as a stabilising force in Nigeria’s downstream sector.
Looking forward, industry observers note emerging expansion in Nigeria’s refining infrastructure. The Waltersmith Refinery’s second train has commenced the introduction of hydrocarbons, signalling incremental expansion of Nigeria’s refining capacity.
The combined impact of Dangote refinery’s operations and modular refinery expansions could significantly reduce Nigeria’s long-term dependence on imported fuel.
The March data reflects Nigeria’s ongoing transition from import-dependent fuel supply toward greater domestic refining self-sufficiency. While the immediate surge in petrol imports appears driven by inventory management and logistical timing rather than new regulatory approvals, the structural shift toward domestic production remains the dominant policy direction shaping the Nigerian downstream sector.
Source: Nairametrics
