Official U.S. trade data shows a major shift in the economic relationship between the United States and Nigeria in 2025.
For the first ten months of the year, the U.S. recorded a $1.45 billion goods trade surplus with Nigeria, reversing a deficit from the same period in 2024. 📈 Key figures:
• US exports to Nigeria: Increased sharply to $5.94 billion.
• US imports from Nigeria: Fell to $4.49 billion, contributing to the surplus. 🛠️ Why this matters:
• Exports from the U.S. to Nigeria surged with some reports indicating a 60 % increase compared to last year while Nigerian exports to the U.S. declined, pushing the overall balance in America’s favor.
• The turnaround comes amid new U.S. tariff policies, broadly attributed to enforcement ofTrump-era tariffs aimed at correcting trade imbalances.
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What the data shows
The shift was visible both cumulatively and on a monthly basis. In October 2025 alone, the US posted a $162 million trade surplus with Nigeria, exporting $532 million worth of goods and importing $369 million.
This exceeded the $116 million surplus recorded in September, representing a month-on-month improvement of $46 million, or nearly 40%.
The wider surplus, however, did not come from stronger monthly export volumes.
Between September and October, US exports to Nigeria declined by $124 million, or 18.9%, while imports from Nigeria dropped by a steeper $171 million, or 31.7%.
The sharper contraction in imports widened the US surplus despite lower exports.
Year-on-year figures highlight the scale of the reversal.
In October 2024, the US ran a $103 million deficit with Nigeria, exporting $295 million and importing $398 million.
By October 2025, this had flipped to a $162 million surplus. Over that period, US exports rose by $237 million, or 80.3%, while imports slipped by $29 million, or 7.3%, pointing to export growth as the main driver of the turnaround.
On a cumulative basis, US exports to Nigeria jumped from $3.71 billion in the first ten months of 2024 to $5.94 billion in 2025, an increase of $2.23 billion or 60.2%.
Imports moved in the opposite direction, falling from $5.07 billion to $4.49 billion, a decline of $582 million or 11.5%.
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Nigeria reshapes US-Africa trade balance
Nigeria’s reversal played a key role in reshaping US-Africa trade dynamics.
While the US still recorded a year-to-date goods trade deficit of $3.74 billion with Africa as a whole, Nigeria emerged as one of the few major economies on the continent where the US posted a sizeable surplus.
Total US exports to Africa reached $34.08 billion in the first ten months of 2025, compared with imports of $37.82 billion.
Nigeria accounted for $5.94 billion of those exports, about 17.4% of all US goods shipped to Africa.
On the import side, Nigeria supplied $4.49 billion worth of goods, representing roughly 11.9% of total US imports from the continent.
In October alone, Nigeria made up about 15.6% of US exports to Africa and 12.8% of imports from the region.
More notably, Nigeria contributed around 31% of Africa’s total US trade surplus for the month.
Without Nigeria’s $1.447 billion year-to-date surplus, the overall US trade deficit with Africa would have widened to roughly $5.18 billion, meaning Nigeria offset close to 28% of America’s shortfall with the rest of the continent.
Among selected African partners, only Egypt delivered a larger surplus to the US.
Washington recorded a $5.43 billion surplus with Egypt in 2025, exporting $7.88 billion and importing $2.44 billion.
Nigeria ranked second, ahead of Algeria and South Africa, both of which remained in deficit positions.
South Africa continued to weigh heavily on US-Africa trade, with a year-to-date deficit of $9.22 billion, as US imports of $14.67 billion far outpaced exports of $5.45 billion.
Algeria posted a $1.09 billion deficit, while other African countries combined were close to balance, with a $299 million deficit.
The broader African picture also improved on a monthly basis. In October 2024, the US recorded a $467 million trade deficit with Africa.
By October 2025, that position had shifted to a $523 million surplus, a swing of $990 million within one year.
As with Nigeria, the improvement was driven mainly by reduced imports, which fell from $3.48 billion in September to $2.89 billion in October, while exports eased slightly from $3.59 billion to $3.42 billion.
What you should know
These trade outcomes unfolded amid renewed protectionist rhetoric and tariff-focused policies under US President Donald Trump, which have influenced sourcing decisions and global trade flows.
- While the trade data do not directly attribute Nigeria’s figures to tariffs, the surplus coincided with Washington’s implementation of a “reciprocal” tariff regime that raised Nigeria’s tariff rate from 14% to 15%.
- The executive order, signed in late July and effective from August 7, 2025, applies to a wide range of non-oil Nigerian exports, even as crude oil has been largely exempted.
The higher duty has introduced uncertainty for American importers and appears to have dampened demand for Nigerian non-oil goods, reinforcing the import decline that underpinned the US surplus.
Image Credit: Nairametrics
Source: Nairametrics
