The Nigerian equities market has reached a critical technical juncture in March 2026, with the All-Share Index (ASI) crossing the historic 200,000-point mark on March 16. This milestone follows a relentless bull run that has seen the market capitalisation of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) surge to approximately ₦126.6 trillion.
Despite these record highs, momentum indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are flashing overbought warnings, with readings frequently exceeding the 70–75 threshold, suggesting the market is due for a corrective phase.The current rally is driven by a confluence of structural factors and high-impact sectoral gains.
Leading the charge are large-cap stocks such as Seplat Energy, which recently saw a 10% daily jump to ₦7,370, and dominant players in the consumer and industrial sectors like BUA Foods and Dangote Cement.
Investor sentiment remains anchored by robust corporate earnings reports and the ongoing “January effect” rebalancing that has spilled over into the first quarter.
Furthermore, the stabilization of the Naira and a significant cooling of inflation projected by analysts at Coronation to hit 14.12% by late 2026 have encouraged both domestic institutional investors and foreign portfolio participants to increase their exposure.
Market analysts have noted a shift in trading dynamics, where the rally is becoming increasingly selective. While the overall market breadth remains positive, with advancers often doubling decliners, the concentration of value remains high; fourteen blue-chip companies now account for nearly half of the total market capitalisation.
Technical observers suggest that while the “bulls refuse to slow down,” immediate resistance levels are forming around the 205,000-point region.
A failure to consolidate above this level could trigger profit-taking, especially as investors look to lock in year-to-date returns that have already eclipsed 26%.
The resilience of the market is also being tested by geopolitical tensions and fluctuating oil prices, which have historically acted as a double-edged sword for the Lagos bourse.
While high oil prices boost the country’s foreign reserves and the valuation of energy stocks, they also raise concerns about domestic energy costs and potential demand destruction in the consumer goods sector.
For now, the NGX continues to defy global inflationary trends, with the 170,000-point mark once considered a psychological ceiling now serving as a firm technical floor.
Source: Nairametrics
