Glencore released its 2026 copper production guidance on Thursday, January 29, but did not provide a forecast for cobalt, citing continued uncertainty that remains too high to support reliable projections, as seen on Ecofin Agency.
The Swiss-based miner said copper production in the Democratic Republic of Congo will take priority over cobalt, as export quotas on the metal continue to restrict shipments.
The company produced 33,500 tonnes of cobalt in the DRC in 2025, a 5% decline from 2024.
Most of that output could not be exported due to an embargo imposed in late February 2025 on Congolese cobalt exports, a metal critical to the electric vehicle industry. Authorities introduced the ban to address a market surplus that was weighing on prices, before replacing it in October with a quota-based export system.
Exports did not resume before the end of 2025, as approval procedures proved slow and complex.
Although unused quotas are typically not carried over, Congolese authorities granted an exception allowing producers to ship late-2025 allocations until March 31, 2026.
For the full year, Glencore said it can export 22,800 tonnes of cobalt, including unused volumes from 2025, compared with a projected 18,800 tonnes in 2027.
These export volumes remain well below combined 2025 production levels from the company’s KCC and Mutanda mines.
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Glencore said that without an increase in export quotas in the coming months, it plans to stockpile surplus cobalt produced in the DRC and sell it when conditions permit.
While 99% of global cobalt production occurs as a byproduct of copper or nickel, cobalt exports face restrictions in the DRC, unlike copper, which has benefited from rising global prices.
On the London Metal Exchange, three-month copper prices reached a record $14,527 per tonne on Thursday, according to Reuters.
After climbing more than 40% in 2025, copper has continued to set new highs in 2026, potentially exceeding some analysts’ expectations.
Goldman Sachs forecasts copper could reach $15,000 per tonne by 2035, as demand is expected to outstrip supply from 2029, driven by investment in electrical grids, energy infrastructure, and artificial intelligence.
Neil Welsh, an analyst at Britannia Global Markets, said these dynamics are already supporting prices as investors anticipate higher global spending on data centers, robotics, and energy systems.
Glencore said it intends to prioritize copper production over cobalt when commercially viable, a strategy reinforced by current market conditions.
Its Congolese operations produced 247,800 tonnes of copper in 2025, up 10% year on year and representing 29% of the company’s total output.
While Glencore has not yet issued detailed country-level guidance for 2026, it said it aims to produce up to 870,000 tonnes of copper across all operations globally, compared with 851,600 tonnes in 2025.
It remains unclear whether the emphasis on copper in the DRC will translate into higher extraction volumes in the country.
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Image Credit: Reuters
