Dr. Yemi Kale, the Group Chief Economist at Afreximbank, has stressed the importance of achieving an unprecedented 40% annual growth rate if Nigeria is to meet its ambitious goal of reaching a $1 trillion GDP.

This statement comes amid the current economic challenges, particularly with the United States’ recent decision to impose a 14% tariff on Nigerian exports.

Speaking at the 2025 Vanguard Economic Discourse in Lagos on Wednesday, Kale outlined the daunting task ahead for Nigeria’s economy.

“To reach a $1 trillion economy by the end of this administration’s term, Nigeria would require annual growth rates in excess of 40%, a pace that is virtually unprecedented and, under current conditions, simply unachievable,” he said.

Despite the challenging circumstances, Kale provided a roadmap for Nigeria to overcome global trade challenges, urging the government to harness the country’s strengths, such as its youthful population and abundant natural resources, to position itself as a key player in both African and global trade.

“The path to economic resilience, inclusive prosperity, and reducing economic hardship is neither quick nor easy, but it is clear. We know what must be done.

The foundational pillars are not in question,” Kale noted. He emphasized the need to stabilize the macroeconomy, restore credibility in fiscal and monetary policy, curb inflation, and rebuild investor confidence.

Kale also stressed the importance of diversifying Nigeria’s economy by unlocking the potential of sectors like agriculture, manufacturing, services, and the digital economy.

“Invest in people and institutions because sustainable growth only happens when human capital is empowered and governance systems are effective,” he added.

Although the U.S. tariff increase posed significant challenges, Kale remained optimistic about Nigeria’s future, pointing out that thoughtful policies are crucial to balancing risks and potential.

He highlighted the importance of ensuring Nigeria remains resilient amid global economic shifts.

Dele Oye, President of the Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce Industries, Mines and Agriculture (NACCIMA), also spoke at the event, underlining the need for Nigeria to prioritize economic sovereignty and develop a resilient, homegrown democracy.

Oye pointed to the adverse effects of the U.S. administration’s isolationist policies and trade wars on global alliances, stating, “The current U.S. administration’s focus on isolationism and trade wars has led to a reevaluation of America’s long-standing alliances, leaving many nations, including Nigeria, to grapple with the complexities of a shifting world order.”

He stressed the need for Nigeria to adapt politically, saying, “For Nigeria, these developments underscore the necessity of prioritizing economic sovereignty and a shift to a homegrown democracy that is both viable and affordable.”

Despite the challenges, Oye expressed confidence in Nigeria’s future, noting the role of technology, emerging trade partnerships, and the entrepreneurial spirit of its youth.

“The balance between these challenges and opportunities will shape Nigeria’s future, highlighting the need for thoughtful policies that harness our potential while addressing the risks ahead,” he said.

Eze Anaba, Editor of Vanguard Newspapers, also echoed these sentiments, urging bold and pragmatic solutions to address Nigeria’s economic challenges.

“You will all agree that, now more than ever, Nigeria’s economy demands innovative thinking and pragmatic solutions,” Anaba remarked.

He emphasized that the Vanguard Economic Discourse, themed “Nigeria’s Economic Outlook 2025: Hardship and Pathways to Sustainable Recovery,” was a vital part of the newspaper’s effort to encourage impactful policy discussions.

Dr. Femi Egbesola, President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria (ASBON), criticized the federal government for its insufficient engagement with small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which make up a significant portion of Nigeria’s economy.

Egbesola revealed that 85.5% of Nigeria’s SME sector consists of nano enterprises, which are often overlooked in policymaking.

“Government must focus on this critical sector to drive real growth,” Egbesola urged.

He also lamented the lack of success in intervention programs, stating, “How many small businesses have become the next Dangote in 10 years? Almost none.”

Egbesola called for structured collaboration in policy design, implementation, and evaluation, insisting, “We don’t need pity; we need partnership.

Policies should not be imposed but developed jointly.”

The Vanguard 2025 Economic Discourse, which brought together policymakers, economists, business leaders, and industry stakeholders, emphasized the need for strategic responses to both global economic challenges and domestic reforms.

The event, first held in 2017, remains a key platform for fostering national dialogue on Nigeria’s economic future.