Nigeria is projected to experience a worsening food security crisis in 2026, with up to 34.7 million people at risk of acute food insecurity.
This projection is contained in PwC’s Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026 report titled “Turning Macroeconomic Stability into Sustainable Growth.”
The report warns that without urgent and coordinated policy actions, key challenges will continue to weaken food production, distribution, and access across the country.
What the report is sayingPwC attributes the rising food insecurity risk to persistent insecurity, particularly in northern Nigeria, where conflict has displaced thousands of farmers and disrupted critical agricultural activities such as planting and harvesting.
Conflict, high input costs, and climate shocks are expected to push 34.7 million Nigerians into acute food insecurity in 2026,” PwC stated.
Between January and October 2025, about 34,000 people were displaced across Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe states, significantly reducing available agricultural labour, according to the report.
The outlook also highlights rising agricultural input costs as a major constraint to food production.
The national average price of NPK fertiliser increased by 19.5% in 2025 to approximately ₦52,000 per 50kg bag.
“Production costs increased sharply, with maize and soyabean production costs rising by 29.2% and 36.8% respectively,” PwC noted.
Limited access to finance further worsened the situation.
Only 62% of farmers used agricultural inputs in 2025, down from 81% in 2024, resulting in a 24% decline in input application and an 8% contraction in cultivated land.
Erratic rainfall patterns and prolonged dry spells in 2025 also led to below-average agricultural output in several regions.
PwC warned that these shocks have already reduced food availability and could further exacerbate food insecurity in 2026.
More insights PwC’s projections align with warnings from farmers and international organisations on the scale of the looming crisis.
Nairametrics previously reported that farmers in the North-Central and North-West regions may abandon farming due to rising production costs, insecurity, and post-harvest losses.
Similarly, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) projected that about 34.7 million Nigerians could face severe food insecurity during the June–August 2026 lean season, based on its October 2025 Cadre Harmonisé analysis.
What you should know Nigeria continues to grapple with food inflation driven by insecurity, currency pressures, and rising energy and input costs.
High fertiliser prices and limited access to agricultural finance have reduced input usage among smallholder farmers.
FAO and other development partners have repeatedly called for urgent interventions to improve security, climate resilience, and food supply chains.
PwC stressed that addressing insecurity, reducing input costs, expanding agricultural finance, and strengthening climate adaptation measures will be critical to preventing the projected food insecurity from escalating into a humanitarian crisis in 2026.
source: Nairametrics
