For many African nations, oil remains a cornerstone of economic stability, anchoring their gross domestic product and national revenue.
But like clockwork, oil production across the continent sees monthly shifts, and May 2025 was no exception.
The latest report from OPEC highlights these fluctuations against the backdrop of falling oil prices and uneven output growth.
According to OPEC, its Reference Basket (ORB) fell sharply in May, dropping by $5.36 or 7.8% month on month, to settle at $63.62 per barrel.
Similarly, the ICE Brent front-month contract dipped by $2.45 or 3.7% month on month, averaging $64.01 per barrel, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract slid by $2.02 or 3.2% to average $60.94 per barrel.
“The global economy maintained a stable growth trajectory, supported by healthy 1Q25 growth and tentative progress in US trade negotiations,” the report noted.
It added, “The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 2.9% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026.”
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Despite softer oil prices, global demand remains on track.
The forecast for 2025 oil demand growth holds steady at 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) year over year.
The OECD is projected to see a modest consumption rise of about 0.2 mb/d, while non-OECD countries are expected to account for more than 1.1 mb/d of that increase.
On the supply side, non-Declaration of Cooperation (non-DoC) liquids are anticipated to grow by about 0.8 mb/d this year.
Much of this supply boost is set to come from Argentina, Canada, Brazil, and the United States.
However, OPEC flagged that oil output in Africa and parts of Asia is set to decline significantly in the second half of 2025.
Nonetheless, several African producers managed to deliver solid output numbers in May.
— Nigeria once again topped the continent’s oil production chart, pumping 1,544 thousand barrels per day (tb/d), an increase of 22 tb/d from April.
— Libya followed with 1,302 tb/d, up by 36 tb/d.
— Algeria maintained its position with 921 tb/d, marking a 9 tb/d rise.
— Congo, the only country among the top five to see a drop, produced 253 tb/d, 6 tb/d less than the previous month.
— Gabon rounded out the group with 233 tb/d, gaining 12 tb/d compared to April.
As African producers navigate price pressures and shifting global demand patterns, their output trends remain closely watched in a market that continues to balance optimism with uncertainty.
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Image Credit: Offshore Technology
