Cordros Securities has revised its target price for Lafarge Africa Plc, increasing it to ₦104.71 per share for the full-year 2025, following the cement giant’s blockbuster first-quarter performance.

The new valuation reflects a 4.0% increase from the earlier projection of ₦100.68 per share and is underpinned by robust revenue growth, a favorable price-volume mix, and a dramatic improvement in earnings.

In its latest equity research report, Cordros highlighted Lafarge’s exceptional 80.3% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1 2025 as a key factor behind the upward revision.

The analysts were also encouraged by Lafarge’s ability to optimize pricing strategies and expand volumes, noting that the company’s Q1 revenue reached ₦248.3 billion, compared to ₦137.7 billion in the same quarter last year.

Cement sales accounted for ₦242.6 billion, while aggregates, concrete, and other product lines contributed the balance.

“Volume increase is driven by expectations of stronger public and private sector demand, improved production efficiency, and the market’s positive reception of the company’s new innovative products,” Cordros stated.

The investment firm also revised its revenue forecast for the full year upward by nearly double, now projecting a 40.7% year-on-year growth, up from the previous estimate of 21.7%.

Cement volumes are expected to hit 6.41 million tons, while average cement prices have been revised from ₦136,000 per ton to ₦153,000, representing a 23% increase.

Earnings projections have seen a major reset as well.

Cordros now forecasts a 110.0% growth in Lafarge’s earnings per share (EPS), reaching ₦13.06 in 2025, up from the earlier forecast of ₦10.44, or 67.9% growth.

The analysts attributed this boost primarily to a steep 96.9% drop in finance costs during the first quarter, which significantly improved profitability.

Lafarge’s pre-tax profit for Q1 2025 surged to ₦73.1 billion, representing a 739.47% increase from ₦8.7 billion in Q1 2024.

Core operational profits also grew sharply to ₦71.6 billion, up 136.97% from ₦30.2 billion in the prior-year quarter.

Cordros based its ₦104.71 target price on a weighted model using an 80/20 blend of Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and sector-relative valuation methods.

The DCF model projected Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF) and to Equity (FCFE) at ₦93.59 and ₦87.05, respectively.

Sector-relative valuations employed Bloomberg peer medians of 6.8x EV/EBITDA and 12.5x P/E, resulting in fair value estimates of ₦161.67 and ₦163.23.

Key assumptions included a 30% corporate tax rate and a 23.9% Weighted Average Cost of Capital.

As of the market close on May 9, 2025, Lafarge shares were trading at ₦81.95, leaving room for considerable upside based on Cordros’ updated projections.