African economies could face a deeper slowdown in growth this year if the conflict in the Middle East continues, as ongoing disruptions to trade, energy, and fertilizer supplies are expected to affect countries across the continent, according to a report released on Thursday, as seen on Reuters.
The report, produced by the African Union and the African Development Bank, stated that Africa’s economic growth could drop by 0.2 percentage points in 2026 if the conflict lasts longer than six months. It was presented during a meeting of the U.N.’s Economic Commission in Tangier.
“The longer the conflict lasts and the more severe the disruption to shipping routes and energy and fertilizer supplies, the greater the risk of a significant growth slowdown across the continent,” the report said.
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While the report did not give exact figures on inflation, it warned that the situation could quickly develop into a cost-of-living crisis across Africa due to rising fuel and food prices. It also noted that some African countries may suffer more from fertilizer shortages than from increased oil prices.
“Disruptions to Gulf liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply would affect ammonia and urea production, raising fertilizer costs and constraining supply during the crucial March-to-May planting season,” it said.
According to the report, the Middle East accounts for 15.8% of Africa’s imports and 10.9% of its exports. However, a small number of countries, including oil producer Nigeria and LNG exporter Mozambique, could benefit from higher global prices.
Changes in shipping routes are already increasing traffic at several African ports, including the Port of Maputo in Mozambique, Durban in South Africa, Walvis Bay in Namibia, and Mauritius.
“In East Africa, Kenya is emerging as a logistics hub through Lamu Port and Nairobi, while Ethiopia is benefiting from its role as the emergency air bridge linking Asia, Africa, and Europe through Ethiopian Airlines,” it said.
The report also warned that a broader conflict in the Middle East could increase global competition for influence in Africa, involving the United States, Gulf states, China, Russia, Iran, and Turkey.
It added that rising geopolitical tensions would increase the cost of delivering humanitarian aid in Sudan and the Horn of Africa.
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Image Credit: Polity
