U.S. President Donald Trump said on January 16 that he is prepared to re-enter talks as a mediator between Egypt and Ethiopia to help resolve the long-running dispute over Nile water sharing.
The move would revive U.S.-led negotiations launched during his first term, which collapsed in 2020 after Ethiopia withdrew and were later continued under African Union leadership without producing an agreement.
Trump said the goal is to reach a lasting settlement that recognizes the Nile’s vital importance to Egypt while opening the door to broader cooperation among countries in the basin.
He argued that combining technical expertise, transparent negotiations, and sustained U.S. engagement could help the parties move toward a durable solution, according to Ecofin Agency.
Washington’s proposed approach centers on a trade-off with clear economic implications.
It aims to secure predictable and regular water releases during dry periods for Egypt and Sudan, while preserving Ethiopia’s ability to generate significant electricity from the Nile.
This, in turn, could allow Ethiopia to export power to neighboring countries and strengthen regional energy integration.
The dispute is rooted in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which was inaugurated in September 2025 on the Blue Nile near the Sudanese border.
With an installed capacity exceeding 5,000 megawatts and total investment estimated at $5 billion since construction began in 2011, the dam is a key pillar of Ethiopia’s development strategy.
Ethiopian authorities view it as essential for expanding electricity access, supporting industrial growth, and improving the management of national water resources in a country where power supply remains uneven.
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Egypt, however, considers the dam a structural risk. The country depends on the Nile for more than 90% of its freshwater, which supports agriculture and supplies a population of over 100 million.
Cairo has repeatedly criticized what it describes as unilateral actions by Ethiopia, while insisting it does not oppose Ethiopia’s development and remains committed to a negotiated outcome.
Sudan has taken a more nuanced position. While the GERD could help regulate floods and support agriculture, Khartoum has expressed concerns about the safety of its Roseires dam and the lack of binding coordination on water management.
A declaration of principles signed by the three countries in 2015 failed to produce agreement on how the dam should be filled and operated.
The economic stakes are high on all sides. For Ethiopia, electricity generation from the GERD is central to growth, industrialization, and future power exports.
For Egypt, any uncoordinated changes in river flows could quickly affect farming, rural employment, and food security, driving its demand for a legally binding framework governing the dam.
The sensitivity of the issue has been reflected in past leaks and public statements that hinted at military scenarios linked to Nile water security.
Trump’s renewed offer of mediation comes at a time when the dam is already operational, yet the rules governing its use remain unresolved.
The central question is whether the Blue Nile can be managed as a shared economic resource through predictable flows and coordinated oversight, or whether it will continue to fuel strategic rivalry.
Some observers caution that U.S. involvement under Trump could face skepticism in Addis Ababa, given Washington’s close ties with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sissi, raising concerns about perceptions of neutrality.
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Image Credit: Los Angeles Daily News
