Senegal is on course to overtake Sudan and become Africa’s second-largest peanut producer after Nigeria in the 2025/26 season, according to new data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
The USDA forecasts Senegal’s peanut harvest at 1.15 million tonnes, a recovery from the reduced 2024/25 output estimated at 800,000 tonnes.
Although not a record, the projected harvest would be sufficient to move Senegal ahead of Sudan for the first time, according to Ecofin Agency.
Sudan’s peanut production is expected to decline to 1 million tonnes, its lowest level in several years and the third consecutive season in which output remains below 2 million tonnes.
While the USDA did not detail the reasons for the drop, the downturn reflects a mix of security, economic, and logistical challenges.
Fighting between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese national army since April 2023 has disrupted major growing areas in Darfur and Kordofan.
“Many companies have been forced to suspend operations or scale back, undermining contract farming and disrupting the entire supply chain,” said Islam Baasher, commercial development manager at Bayrony, speaking on the sidelines of the World Sesame and Peanut Conference in Turkey last September.
He added that widespread bank closures have limited farmers’ access to financing, slowing both planting and harvesting and directly reducing output.
Ongoing insecurity has also raised the risk of losses and spoilage, increased transport costs, and weighed on profitability and overall market supply.
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In contrast, sentiment is improving in Senegal. The forecast harvest would mark a significant milestone for the second-largest economy in the West African Economic and Monetary Union, which recorded yields of about one tonne per hectare in the 2024/25 season.
That level was roughly 50% higher than Sudan’s yield of 0.69 tonnes per hectare, achieved on 780,000 hectares compared with 2.83 million hectares in Sudan.
For the 2025/26 season, the productivity gap is expected to widen further, with Senegal’s yields projected at 1.32 tonnes per hectare and Sudan’s falling to 0.50 tonnes per hectare.
The larger crop brings both domestic challenges and export opportunities. Authorities have said the National Oilseed Processing Company, Sonacos, aims to purchase 450,000 tonnes of peanuts from farmers.
However, two months after the marketing season opened in November, only 62,000 tonnes had been purchased, based on the latest estimates.
Sonacos significantly increased procurement between the 2023/24 and 2024/25 seasons, with collections rising from 12,933 tonnes to 155,578 tonnes, according to official data.
Even so, questions remain over whether the state-owned company can meet its highest target to date.
“It is unrealistic to think this company is capable of buying 450,000 tonnes of peanut seeds,” said the regional coordinator of farmers’ association Aar Sunu Momel in Thiès, in comments reported by the Senegalese Press Agency on Jan. 11.
Some analysts warn that excess supply could weigh on domestic prices, despite the government setting a minimum price of 305 CFA francs per kilogram.
The situation may favor exporters. The government has recently removed a 4% tax on international sales, and exporters generally offer higher prices than Sonacos.
This could help revive a sector that has struggled in recent years. The value of Senegal’s unroasted peanut exports has steadily declined since 2021, falling from 154.7 billion CFA francs, or $279.5 million, to 65.3 billion CFA francs, or $118 million.
Over the same period, export volumes dropped nearly threefold to 121,798 tonnes, according to figures from the National Agency of Statistics and Demography.
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Image Credit: Agro Crops
