Nigeria’s crude oil production increased modestly in January 2026, rising to 1.459 million barrels per day (bpd), according to the latest Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR).
The figure reflects a month-on-month growth of 37,000 bpd from the 1.422 million bpd recorded in December 2025, based on direct communication figures submitted by Nigerian authorities to OPEC.
Nairametrics Although the uptick confirms a gradual recovery in output, Nigeria remains below its assigned OPEC production quota of 1.5 million bpd, leaving it about 50,000 bpd short of the target for the month.
Production Data and DiscrepanciesOPEC’s reporting framework uses data from two sources: direct communication from member countries and secondary sources such as independent energy intelligence platforms.
While communication figures estimate Nigeria’s January output at 1.459 million bpd, secondary sources cited by OPEC estimated it slightly higher at around 1.47 million bpd.
These methodological differences are common in OPEC publications and reflect varying approaches to tracking physical flows and reported data.
Despite the variation, both estimates confirm that Nigeria retained its status as Africa’s largest crude oil producer in January 2026, ahead of Libya, which recorded about 1.37 million bpd over the same period.
Challenges Behind the Output FiguresNigeria’s inability to meet its OPEC quota for six consecutive months underscores persistent operational challenges in its oil sector.
Key constraints include:
Oil theft and pipeline vandalism in the Niger Delta, which continue to disrupt production and reduce recoverable volumes.
Underinvestment in upstream infrastructure, limiting the capacity to ramp up output quickly.Maintenance and operational disruptions at key oil fields and facilities are affecting sustained production levels.
These factors, combined with broader security and logistical issues in core producing regions, have constrained Nigeria’s output relative to OPEC quota expectations.
OPEC Group Production ContextBeyond Nigeria, OPEC reported that total crude oil production by Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) countries the grouping that includes OPEC members and participating allies averaged 42.45 million bpd in January 2026 according to secondary sources, marking a month-on-month decline of 439,000 bpd. This broader trend aligns with ongoing efforts by the bloc to manage supply conditions amid global market volatility.
Nigeria’s output performance in January, while improved from December figures, highlights the structural and operational reforms still needed to achieve quota compliance and support stronger production growth in 2026.
