Nigeria and Angola are positioned to lead Africa’s shift toward energy security, as the continent’s refining capacity is expected to significantly increase, potentially meeting up to 90% of its fuel demand, if fully utilized.

This projection is contained in the newly released “State of Africa’s Infrastructure Report 2025” by the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC).

“If fully utilized, refining capacity could meet up to 90% of the continent’s fuel demand, compared to just 45% last year,” the AFC noted in the report.

To unlock this capacity, the report outlines two critical investment paths.

“First, brownfield upgrades: over $16 billion is needed to modernize existing refineries, meet clean fuel standards, and reduce reliance on imports.”

“Second, greenfield investment is key to meeting future demand, with Nigeria and Angola emerging as new continental hubs,” the Corporation stated.

The Dangote Refinery, located in Nigeria, is at the center of this strategy.

With a processing capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, it is described in the report as crucial to achieving near-term energy security across the continent.

The current state of refining in Africa has left many countries heavily reliant on imported petroleum products, many of which are still subsidized.

In 2023, 55% of Africa’s fuel demand was met through imports, according to the AFC.

However, the Corporation notes that “if refining capacity were fully utilized, this number could drop to only 10%.”

The report also highlights that beyond commissioning new refineries, upgrading and reactivating existing ones will play a vital role.

The reopening of Nigeria’s Port Harcourt and Warri refineries, scheduled between 2024 and 2026, is expected to contribute to a significant shift in the continent’s energy supply landscape.

“The sector’s growth is closely tied to the modernization of existing refineries in West and Central Africa, overcoming feedstock and financing challenges for new projects, and addressing critical infrastructure bottlenecks in transportation and distribution networks,” the report added.

“To achieve fuel security and meet the continent’s increasing demand, Africa must prioritize investment in refinery upgrades, develop efficient distribution systems, including pipelines, railways, and diversified port infrastructure.”

“As new energy infrastructure is built, it must also be resilient and capable of supporting future energy transitions. The successful integration of these elements will be crucial for achieving long-term fuel security and energy independence across the continent,” the AFC stated.

Africa’s largest oil refinery, the Dangote Refinery, was commissioned in May 2023 in Nigeria, with expectations that it would ease the country’s persistent fuel shortages.

Speaking on Thursday, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu praised the refinery, calling it a “great point of reference, a great phenomenon of our time, and a massive investment” that reflects Nigeria’s potential for industrial and economic transformation.

He also commended its founder, Alhaji Aliko Dangote, for his continued investments in the country.