Angola, Sub-Saharan Africa’s second-largest crude oil exporter, is weighing the possibility of seeking an International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan as falling oil prices put pressure on government finances.

Finance Minister Vera Daves de Sousa revealed on Friday that stress tests are underway to gauge the impact of the oil slump, warning that the situation increases the likelihood of requesting an IMF financing programme.

The country’s 2025 budget is based on an oil benchmark of $70 per barrel.

However, Brent crude briefly fell below $60, its lowest level in four years, following turbulence in U.S. markets.

If oil prices continue to decline, the consequences could be severe.

“A modest drop could force us to freeze certain spending plans, while a sharper fall to $45 per barrel would likely require a supplementary budget,” Daves de Sousa said, according to Reuters.

Angola’s challenges mirror those of Nigeria, Africa’s fourth-largest economy and a major oil producer, where about 90% of foreign exchange earnings depend on oil.

Nigeria’s $37 billion budget for 2025 assumes a $75-per-barrel oil price, exposing it to similar risks if crude prices remain under pressure.

For both nations, a sustained fall threatens the backbone of national spending and development plans.

To cushion the blow, Daves de Sousa explained that Angola is working to boost revenues, improve tax administration, and strengthen property tax enforcement.

Yet market volatility continues to weigh heavily.

Angola’s international bonds have declined sharply as a result of the oil price slide and instability in fixed-income markets, especially U.S. Treasuries.

Earlier this month, the government had to pay $200 million after JPMorgan issued a margin call on a $1 billion total return swap loan arranged in December, backed by Angola’s dollar bonds.

Asked about Angola’s debt profile, Daves de Sousa said the country still owes $8 billion in oil-backed loans to China but expects to repay this earlier than initially planned, aiming for 2028 rather than the 2030–2031 timeline.

Despite the ongoing debt repayments, Angola continues to access new funding from China.

The finance minister clarified that these newer loans, largely from the Export-Import Bank of China (EXIM), are concessional rather than collateralized and are targeted at key development projects, including rural internet expansion and improvements in the education sector.