Oil prices declined on Thursday as investors weighed weaker forecasts for global crude demand against a sharp increase in United States inventories, although continuing supply disruptions in the Middle East and Black Sea provided some support to the market.
According to Reuters, Brent crude futures fell 91 cents, or 1%, to $88.07 a barrel at 0800 GMT on August 13, 2026, trimming gains recorded over the previous six sessions. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude declined 96 cents, or 1.2%, to $82.31 a barrel after advancing during the previous five sessions.
Pressure on prices intensified after both the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered their expectations for global oil demand in 2026.
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U.S. commercial crude inventories recorded their largest weekly increase since January 2023 after exports declined sharply, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration cited by Reuters.
Inventories increased by 17.4 million barrels to 424.4 million barrels in the week ended August 7, reaching their highest level since June 5. The increase contrasted sharply with expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.4 million-barrel decline.
PVM analyst John Evans said the inventory build, together with weaker demand estimates from OPEC and the IEA, contributed to keeping oil prices below $90 a barrel.
OPEC lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 580,000 barrels per day in its latest monthly oil market report.
The IEA presented an even weaker outlook, forecasting that consumption would contract by 1.6 million barrels per day this year, compared with the 1 million-barrel-per-day decline it had projected a month earlier. According to Reuters, the agency cited higher prices and restricted supply resulting from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran as factors weighing on demand.
Despite the downward pressure, continuing supply disruptions provided some support to crude prices.
A senior Iranian source said on Wednesday that there had been no progress in negotiations to revive an interim agreement between Iran and the United States reached in June or establish a timeframe for its implementation.
Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy supplies, also remained constrained. Vessel crossings excluding container ships fell to five on Wednesday, their lowest level in three weeks, according to Kpler shipping data cited by Reuters.
Further supply concerns emerged around the Black Sea. Russia struck Ukraine’s Izmail port area in the southern Odesa region overnight, while a drone attack caused a fire in an industrial area in Salavat in Russia’s Bashkortostan republic, where a large oil refinery is located.
What This Means For Africa
Movements in international crude prices carry significant implications for Africa because the continent includes both major oil exporters and countries heavily dependent on imported petroleum products.
For oil-producing economies, weaker global demand and sustained downward pressure on prices can affect export earnings and government revenues, particularly where national budgets remain sensitive to movements in international crude markets.
For importing economies, lower crude prices can eventually reduce some external energy costs, although the impact on domestic fuel prices depends on exchange rates, refining capacity, taxes and individual pricing systems.
The competing forces currently shaping the market therefore remain important for African economies. Rising U.S. inventories and weaker demand forecasts are putting downward pressure on crude, while disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and other important supply routes continue to create significant uncertainty over the availability and movement of global oil supplies.
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Image Credit: The Guardian
