Rwanda is pursuing an ambitious strategy to overcome the limitations of being landlocked by building a $2.5 billion intra-African trade portfolio, according to a December 2025 assessment by Afreximbank.
The portfolio accounts for nearly 38% of the country’s total trade, but it remains highly concentrated, with 79% of Rwanda’s African exports going directly to the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).
This heavy dependence on a single neighbouring market leaves Rwanda’s economy highly exposed to security conditions in eastern DRC, where key trade corridors pass.
The June 2025 Washington Accords have emerged as the main diplomatic framework aimed at stabilising the movement of minerals and manufactured goods through the region, according to Ecofin Agency.
Kigali’s broader development plan is centred on positioning the country as a regional logistics and services hub, supported by major investments such as the construction of the New Kigali International Airport and the expansion of the national airline, RwandAir.
Rwanda recorded official economic growth of 8.9% in 2024, but a comprehensive GDP rebasing completed in late 2025 revised the real growth rate to a more sustainable 7.2%.
The rebasing reflects structural changes in the economy, which is increasingly driven by high-value services rather than traditional sectors.
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This strong growth performance has been accompanied by a sharp rise in public borrowing. As infrastructure spending reaches its peak, the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to approach 80% by 2027.
The long-term viability of this infrastructure-led growth model depends on a shift from state-driven investment toward higher productivity led by the private sector.
Although both the International Monetary Fund and the African Development Bank continue to assess Rwanda’s risk of debt distress as moderate, the country’s fiscal buffer has narrowed.
This increases the importance of mega-projects generating foreign exchange earnings and tax revenues at a pace that outstrips rising debt servicing costs.
To support this transition, the National Bank of Rwanda has introduced competitive foreign exchange auctions to improve price discovery and allow greater flexibility in the currency.
This marks a move away from the country’s historically managed exchange rate system, with the aim of better absorbing external shocks and strengthening policy credibility.
The broader economic strategy is built on the belief that deeper regional integration under the African Continental Free Trade Area will lower trade barriers and allow Rwanda to function as a high-efficiency re-export gateway.
However, the success of this approach depends on a lasting regional peace dividend that would enable the existing $2.5 billion trade base to expand across the wider Great Lakes market.
Without the stability promised by recent diplomatic agreements, Rwanda’s investments in logistics and aviation risk operating in a volatile and poorly integrated regional environment, where the margin for fiscal missteps is increasingly narrow.
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Image Credit: imagerwanda
